Case studies · anonymised

Two indicators. Same projects. Three different outcomes.

Three real industrial projects, owner and chemistry held back for confidentiality. The PMI score before commit, the PHI score during execution, and the result each one delivered.

PMI & PHI · three projects at a glance
PMIPHIOutcome
Alpha 8276 On schedule, under FEL-3
Beta 8691 Market window held
Gamma 4944 ~2.5× estimate, ongoing

Every score on screen is the score that landed.

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Project Alpha

Petrochemical · India · import substitution.

A bulk aromatic into a chemistry the parent had not made before. Anti-dumping duty on the import opened a 5–7 year window.

PMI · the development read
82 / 100 · HEALTHY

Discipline before the cheque.

FEL-1
Estimate ₹990 cr · 23 months
Returns IRR 21%
Feedstock single supplier, polymer-grade
FEL-3
Estimate ₹1,400 cr · 29 months
Returns IRR 16%
Feedstock two suppliers, refinery-grade
Project did not move until PMI crossed 80. Everyone knew the expected outcome before commit.
PHI · the execution read
76 / 100 · HEALTHY

A project organisation, not an operations one.

  • GovernanceDecision rights delegated cleanly. Owner kept distance.
  • SkillsL&T-school EPC specialists. Recruited for project-management skill.
  • WorkflowHybrid waterfall–agile. Structured change-order management.
  • CultureSpeed · cost · safety · quality — the project mindset.
Tools — S-curve, SPI, CPI, Monte Carlo, Value at Risk — drift was measured and controlled.
Outcome ₹1,352 cr · 28 months — under FEL-3, on schedule. The project organisation delivered.
Project Beta

Downstream solvent · India · by-product integration.

A surplus by-product converted into a previously-imported solvent, with an electronic-grade variant for semiconductors. Same playbook as Alpha — the discipline was repeated.

PMI · the development read
86 / 100 · HEALTHY

Tight read — right through to commit.

FEL-1
Estimate ₹51 cr · 12 months
Capacity 40 KTA, one train
Funding internal accrual
FEL-3
Estimate ₹71 cr · 18 months
Capacity 80 KTA, two trains
Funding internal accrual
Strategic clarity at FEL-1, no open gaps at FEL-3. PMI tracked above 80 throughout.
PHI · the execution read
91 / 100 · EXCELLENT

The discipline carried over from Alpha.

  • GovernanceSame clean delegation. Owner-out, project director-in.
  • SkillsEPC-trained team carried over from Alpha.
  • WorkflowStable basis, hybrid scheduling, controlled change management.
  • CultureProject mindset preserved — never drifted back to operations posture.
Same tools, same drift discipline — with one more cycle of maturity behind the team.
Outcome ₹65 cr · 18 months — delivered just before the COVID 2nd wave. The market window held.
Project Gamma

Specialty intermediate · USA · raw-material arbitrage.

A low-cost feedstock in the USA at one-third the India price. The plant was sized for one primary product plus two downstream by-products that made the business case work.

PMI · the development read
49 / 100 · STRAINED

The cheque was signed with uncertainty still inside.

FEL-1
Estimate USD 110M · 29 months
Capacity 20,000 TPA
Funding 70:30 Debt:Equity
FEL-3
Estimate USD 154M · 33 months
Capacity 40,000 TPA
Funding 60:40 Debt:Equity, technical issue surfaced late
PMI at commit was around 50/100. High residual uncertainty — leadership preferred optimism over organisation.
PHI · the execution read
44 / 100 · STRAINED

An operations culture inside a project.

  • GovernanceDelegated on paper. In practice, the owner held every call.
  • SkillsHand-picked for technical-process depth. Project-management capability was thin.
  • WorkflowDefinition kept changing to absorb operational feedback. No stable basis.
  • CultureOperations mindset — "once it's ready, it must run forever."
No structured drift measurement. Optimism preferred over organisation.
Outcome (ongoing) Now expected USD 280M · 62 months — ~2.5× the FEL-3 estimate, plus COVID, Ukraine, and tariff shocks layered on top.
The pattern

Two numbers. Same projects. The same story, twice.

Where both were high

Alpha · Beta

PMI above 80 at commit. PHI above 75 through execution. Strong development, strong organisation. Both delivered.

Where both were low

Gamma

PMI 49 at commit. PHI dropped to 44 during execution. Weak development carried into a weak organisation. The overrun was foreseeable.

Two indicators, used in sequence, are the most reliable predictor of outcome — on every project we have run them against.

Run your project through PMI and PHI.

Tell us where the project is. We will score it — before, during, or both — and walk you through the read.